The Liberal Democrats have enjoyed a surge in popularity since the first Prime Ministerial debate, which aired on the 15th April 2010. A party that has never before received the same amount of mainstream coverage as either Labour or The Conservatives finally found itself on equal footing as its opponents and ran with it. A YouGov poll taken six days after the initial debate put Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats in first place, 3% above David Cameron’s Conservatives and 8% above Gordon Brown’s Labour, the peak of Lib Dem support in the popular polls. Quite a jump for a party so routinely mocked or ignored by mainstream news and media.
Currently the poll of polls shows that all three main parties are neck and neck. The most recent poll taken by Harris as of 4th May 2010 shows the Tories at 33%, the Lib Dems at 32% and Labour trailing at 24%, while a combined poll of polls puts the Tories slightly ahead of the other two. Overall, the polls suggest a stalemate between the three main parties with no clear front runner. However, the most recent results taken by the Facebook application, Democracy UK, which has been taken by well over 450,000 voters puts Nick Clegg well ahead of the competition with a 42% share over Cameron’s 31% and Brown’s 27%.
Facebook Demographic
A Facebook poll is something that is always laughed off by old or established media. The site has received more than its fair share of criticism and media driven controversy since it came to the public eye a few years ago. However, social networking sites have become a mainstay of new media, used regularly in PR, business and entertainment as a means to ‘spread the word’ or to gauge opinion on trends or products. Most brand names, especially high street fashion, have Facebook pages.
Statistics released at the end of April by Clicky Media show the Facebook demographic to be made up of predominately those that fit within the 20-29 years age gap, making up well over a quarter of the Facebook membership. Taking into account the additional 18 and 19 year olds who are of legal voting age, this increases the percentage further. As such, the recent Facebook poll suggests a massive youth and first time voter support for Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats just two days from the elections on the 6th May.
Youth and Student Support
The Liberal Democrats have always been firm on their policy to reduce and ultimately get rid of tuition fees for university students, which has always been popular with the young and student voters, especially since the countless rises in cost imposed by Labour. Despite the current economic climate meaning that they’ve had to postpone the policy for at least six years, the Facebook polls suggests that the following is still strong. News clips have shown Nick Clegg receiving massively positive receptions upon visiting student strongholds throughout the country, one even seeing Liberal Democrat student supporters tearing up a Labour placard at one of his speeches.
The poll seems to show that the youth vote is still looking for progressive politics. Despite the dissatisfaction with Brown, there is still a clear reluctance to vote for a party that has shown itself through a series of recent gaffes. The Conservative’s attempt at rebranding themselves as a progressive party seems to have failed after such incidents such as Chris Grayling, the Shadow Home Secretary’s comments regarding B&B’s being able to turn away couples based on their sexuality.
Implications on the Election
Whilst the youth vote implies easy Liberal Democrat wins in student town constituencies, many students are registered to vote in their home constituencies rather than those they are educated in. The student strongholds may be able to help put together enough votes to elect Lib Dem MPs to parliament, however many could be lost, spread amongst other areas dominated by other parties, under the current first past the post system.
The Liberal Democrats look to change the current electoral system in order to make voting results more representative of the public vote. Currently Labour supports a minor change while the Conservatives support keeping the current system.
Daniel Crudge - Daniel is a graduate from the London, University of Westminster, where he achieved a Bachelar of Arts Degree in Creative Writing and ...
